📊 Akurasi Model — Rapor Kejujuran
Bukti model kita layak dipercaya: prediksi dicatat, dievaluasi otomatis saat match selesai
Hit Rate
75%
pick 1X2 benar
Brier Score
0.582
acak ~0.667 (kecil = bagus)
Sudah Dinilai
4
match selesai
Menunggu
68
belum kickoff
🧭
Model WAJAR (4 match): hit 75%. Pantau terus.
Kalibrasi (seberapa jujur tingkat keyakinan)
Idealnya, saat model bilang "yakin 70-80%", kenyataannya benar ~75%. Kalau jauh meleset = model over/under-confident.
50-60%
75% benar
4 match
60-70%
—
0 match
70-80%
—
0 match
80%+
—
0 match
Hasil yang sudah dinilai
| Pertandingan | Pick model | Yakin | Skor | Hasil | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico vs South Africa | Tim 1 | 39% | 2-0 | ✓ Benar | 0.5581 |
| Korea Republic vs Czech Republic | Tim 1 | 42% | 2-1 | ✓ Benar | 0.4998 |
| Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | Tim 1 | 51% | 1-1 | ✗ Salah | 0.849 |
| United States vs Paraguay | Tim 1 | 47% | 4-1 | ✓ Benar | 0.421 |
Prediksi tercatat, menunggu pertandingan (68)
Hit rate = % pick 1X2 model BENAR. Brier makin kecil makin akurat (acak 3-arah ~0.667; <0.6 sudah bagus). Kalibrasi: idealnya bucket 70-80% punya hit rate ~75%. Data terisi otomatis saat pertandingan selesai.
| Pertandingan | Pick model | Yakin | Skor | Hasil | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar vs Switzerland | Tim 2 | 57% | — | menunggu | — |
| Brazil vs Morocco | Tim 1 | 42% | — | menunggu | — |
| Haiti vs Scotland | Tim 2 | 42% | — | menunggu | — |
| Australia vs Türkiye | Tim 2 | 54% | — | menunggu | — |
| Germany vs Curacao | Tim 1 | 66% | — | menunggu | — |
| Netherlands vs Japan | Tim 1 | 45% | — | menunggu | — |
| Côte d'Ivoire vs Ecuador | Tim 1 | 44% | — | menunggu | — |
| Sweden vs Tunisia | Tim 1 | 46% | — | menunggu | — |
| Spain vs Cape Verde Islands | Tim 1 | 67% | — | menunggu | — |
| Belgium vs Egypt | Tim 1 | 53% | — | menunggu | — |
| Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay | Tim 2 | 48% | — | menunggu | — |
| Iran vs New Zealand | Tim 1 | 57% | — | menunggu | — |
| France vs Senegal | Tim 1 | 50% | — | menunggu | — |
| Iraq vs Norway | Tim 2 | 63% | — | menunggu | — |
| Argentina vs Algeria | Tim 1 | 51% | — | menunggu | — |
| Austria vs Jordan | Tim 1 | 59% | — | menunggu | — |
| Portugal vs Congo DR | Tim 1 | 60% | — | menunggu | — |
| England vs Croatia | Tim 1 | 46% | — | menunggu | — |
| Ghana vs Panama | Tim 2 | 46% | — | menunggu | — |
| Uzbekistan vs Colombia | Tim 2 | 53% | — | menunggu | — |
+48 lagi…